Australia’s Failed Experiment: Five Years After Brand Censorship on Tobacco, Decline in Smoking Rates has Stalled

New Research Finds Most Australians Consider So-Called ‘Plain’ Packaging Ineffective, with Eight out of Ten Believing the Government Would Ignore Evidence if it Contradicted its Preferred Policy

Australians Concerned Regulation May Spread to Other Categories

Geneva, November 30, 2017 – CanvasU, commissioned by JTI (Japan Tobacco International), recently conducted a poll to understand Australians’ views on the policy five years after its implementation. The research found that:

• Almost two-thirds (59%) of Australians believe that plain packaging has been ineffective.

• The majority of Australians (80%) believe the government wouldn’t change or would be reluctant to change a preferred policy if the evidence was weighted against it.

Even the Australian government’s own data justifies public scepticism; the most recent figures from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare show that “…while smoking rates have been on a long-term downward trend, for the first time in over two decades, the daily smoking rate did not significantly decline over the most recent 3 year period (2013 to 2016)”¹:

“Unsurprisingly, early data from France and the United Kingdom is pointing in the same direction”, states Michiel Reerink, JTI’s Global Regulatory Strategy Vice President. According to a new report published by Europe Economics, since the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD2) and plain packaging requirements were implemented in both the UK and France, the combined policies haven’t had any impact on smoking rates or tobacco sales². Recent data published by the French public authorities confirms that after nine-months, the amount of tobacco products distributed to retailers remains stable.³ [...]

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¹https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/illicit-use-of-drugs/ndshs-2016-key-findings/contents/highlights-from-the-2016-survey
 
² The analysis shows that there has been no statistically significant impact on prevalence in the UK and no statistically significant impact on consumption in the UK or in France: http://www.europe-economics.com/publications/15/publications.htm

³ OFDT (Observatoire français des drogues et des toxicomanies). Volumes of tobacco products (RMC and RYO/MYO) distributed to retailers as reported by Customs autorities (Direction Générale des Douanes et Droits Indirects). See https://www.ofdt.fr/statistiques-et-infographie/tableau-de-bord-tabac/. Tobacco products went up slightly (+0.6%) during the first half of 2017 versus the same period last year). For the period January to September, the same data showed a decrease by just 1.4% versus to the same period.